NBA Race to the play-in Tournament

The NBA scheduled just dropped it has many great games on the schedule starting with opening night on July 30^th. It is kicked off with a doubleheader the Utah Jazz vs New Orleans Pelicans and the battle of Los Angeles with the Lakers vs Clippers. The Pelicans who are currently in the 10^th spot and are currently just tied with the Portland Trailblazers who are just 3 games out of the 8^th seed. New Orleans has the easiest schedule during this final 8 game stretch. This is fair due to the fact prior to the NBA shutting down the Pelicans had the easiest remaining schedule. There are 3 games that will play a huge role in the race to the 9^th spot; if the 9^th seed is within 4 games of the 8^th seed a play-in tournament will be played to determine the 8^th seed for the playoffs.

Memphis Grizzlies vs Portland Trailblazers (July 31^st)

The first game for both teams is playing against each other this game is crucial because it sets the tone. If the Memphis Grizzlies win, they would extend their lead on the Trailblazers to 5 games who are currently in the 8^th spot. This is key because if the Memphis can keep a 5-game lead between them and the 9^th seed they will go right into the playoffs. The Trailblazers are finally healthy which is a scary thought due to the fact last year they were just in the Western Conference Finals.  If the Trailblazers win, they will go from 4 games back to just 3 games back putting them in a positive position in the race to get the play-in tournament.

Memphis Grizzlies vs New Orleans Pelicans (August 3^rd)

One of the most exciting matchups of the NBA restart this has several storylines. This includes the Pelicans race to get the 9^th spot to potentially qualify for the play-in tournament to play against the Grizzlies. Also, it features the top 2 candidates for Rookie of the year in Ja Morant and Zion Williamson. The future of the NBA will be shown in this matchup with teams who have 2 of the youngest rosters in the NBA.

King VS New Orleans Pelicans (August 6^th, and August 11th  )

The Sacramento Kings are tied with both the Portland Trailblazers and the New Orleans Pelicans with being 4 games back of the Memphis Grizzles who are currently the 8^th seed. Unfortunately, the Kings do not own the tiebreaker over either team so in order to make the 9^thseed they have to have a better record. The Kings play two games against the Pelicans including their second to last game of the season. Sacramento faces an uphill battle with 3 of their players, including Star Player Buddy Hield, testing positive for Covid 19. It will be interesting to see if the team starts off a little slow to begin the restart.

  

With the schedule released my prediction is that we will see the Portland Trailblazers Vs the Memphis Grizzlies in a play in Tournament. The Trailblazers will win in 3 games which would advance them as the 8^th seed and into the playoffs. Also, for the Eastern Conference, the Orlando Magic will maintain their 6 game lead over the Washington Wizards and win the 8^th seed for the Eastern Conference. Both 8^th seeds will be swept in the first round. I am glad the NBA is back and I look forward to what the restart has to offer. Countdown to July 30^th begins!!!

Western Conference and NBA Finals Predictions

The NBA comes back at the end of July, so it is time for the Western Conference and NBA Finals preview. The 8 teams from the west that I predict to make the playoffs are the Los Angeles Lakers, Los Angeles Clippers, Denver Nuggets, Utah Jazz, Oklahoma City Thunder, Houston Rockets, Dallas Mavericks, and the Portland Trailblazers. There are 2 contenders and 1 dark horse to reach the NBA Finals and represent the Western Conference. The Los Angeles Lakers have the best record in West at 49-14 and added a top 5 player in Anthony Davis, this summer making them a heavy favorite led by Lebron James. The Los Angeles Clippers signed reigning finals Kawhi Leonard and traded for Paul George. The Clippers did both moves while keeping their team’s core from last year together giving them a great chance to make it to the finals. The Denver Nuggets have great young core looking to build on their second-round appearance from last season. They are led by All Star Center Nikola Jokic. The Utah Jazz are a good team led by Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert. The Oklahoma City Thunder surprised the entire league; many figured the team would be in rebuild mode and not in playoff contention; once theThunder traded both Paul George and Russell Westbrook. Instead the Thunder led by Chris Paul will be making the playoffs.  The Houston Rockets led by James Harden and Russell Westbrook are trying to win a championship playing small ball. The Dallas Mavericks have had a good season with Luka Doncic emerging as a star and with the help Kristaps Porzingis have the Mavs in the playoffs. The Trailblazers finally have a healthy team and I fully expect them to gain the 8^th seed when the NBA goes into the playoffs. If they didn’t play the Lakers in the first round, they could make noise in the playoffs. The 2 contenders are the Lakers, and Clippers,and the dark horse is the Houston Rockets.

The Los Angeles Lakers

The Los Angeles Lakers have the best record in the Western Conference at 49-14 and are led by Lebron James and Anthony Davis. The Lakers missed the playoffs last year and then traded for Anthony Davis and revamped the team with free agents that fit the play styles of James and Davis. James and Davis are arguably the best tandem in the NBA. There are three things that can derail the Lakers from reaching the NBA finals; which are 3pt shooting, Free throw percentage, and turnovers. The Laker are ranked 17^th in 3-point percentage but are ranked just 22^nd in 3 pointers made at 11 a game. In addition to the lack of 3- point shooting the Lakers are also not great at the free-throw line. They have the 3^rd worst free throw percentage in the league at 73%. Lastly, they average the 8^th most turnovers per game at 15 and must cut it down to likely 12 to win the championship.

The Los Angeles Clippers

The Los Angeles Clippers pulled off the biggest trade of the offseason when they acquired Paul George. This is the biggest trade because the Anthony Davis trade everyone knew was going to happen, but the George trade happened out of nowhere. The trade ensured that Kawhi would sign with the Clippers. They one of the best perimeter defenses in league with all the length they have at each position. The three things that concern me about the Clippers are Chemistry, Steals, and Transition Defense. The Clippers are ranked 24^th in the league at getting steals; this is crucial because as the playoffs get deeper the fewer possessions you likely will have in a game. Steals are a great way to gain extra possessions in a game. In addition, the Clippers must improve their transition defense; they are ranked 20^th in opponent Fast break points. This means they give up the 11 most fast break in the league; this a key stat because in most games Fast break points can help stretch leads and cut deficits. Lastly, my biggest concern is their chemistry. Paul George and Kawhi Leonard have both missed double-digit games due to injury and load management and in crunch time I see possible miscommunication can occur in the thick of the playoffs.

Houston Rockets,

The one dark horse team is the Houston Rockets. Th Rockets have one of the best backcourts in the league this season in Russell Westbrook, and James Harden. They have two former MVPs in Westbrook and Harden who each carried the team at some point this season. The overall concern I have about the Rockets their determination to play small ball and just 3’s. They take the most 3’s in the league at 46 3 pointers attempted per game. Also, they traded Clint Capela who was extremely vital to the teams rebounding ability. Once they traded Capela they slide to 4 worst rebounding team in the league at just 39 rebounds a game. They are just living by the 3 pointers and layups. If the Rockets can hit 3’s then they have a chance to get to the finals otherwise it will be them going home in the second round.

Prediction

I predict that the Los Angeles Lakers and the Los Angeles Clippers will meet in the Western Conference Finals. The Lakers will win in 7 games with Anthony Davis being the driving force and leading the NBA title over the Boston Celtics in 6 games. Davis will be named the NBA Finals MVP and capture his first NBA Championship.

* All statistics are from www.nba.com

To Play or Not to Play

On the evening of Friday June 12th the NBA Players Association (NBPA) had a conference call to discuss concerns about restarting the season. Several players led by Brooklyn Nets Point Guard Kyrie Irving ,expressed that due to the current climate in the US that the resumption of the season would distract people from the movement, focused on racial injustice and police brutality. Other players have expressed opposed opinions including Austin Rivers, Houston Rockets Shooting guard. He believes that by having the season resume players cannot only use their money to support causes but also their platform to make their voices heard on a grand stage.  

I understand where both parties are coming from Kyrie is saying what’s going is bigger than basketball and people only are paying attention because there is no other option. Austin Rivers is saying you can use sports to broadcast your messages to a bigger audience. Based on history and the comment sections of social media Austin Rivers suggestion is great in theory,but you can see people essentially telling Kyrie shut up and play. 

Also the last time a sports star tried to bring awareness to social injustice while playing he was vilified.  The biggest fear is that basketball comes back and the cycle continues of social injustice happening. By cycle I mean that a situation occurs then outrage, the seeking of change from the masses for a few weeks then back to everyday life. 

It has only been 3 weeks since George Floyd and Breanna Taylor were killed. Many of the protest that brought change lasted longer than a month. At the moment the whole world is talking about social injustice and ways for reform even on sports networks many topics are addressing race. If you bring back the NBA  conversations will shift. Sports are a social construct; so just like if you have just one game to watch everyone will tune in. When you have multiple games on simultaneously some will choose to watch the other game and often forget the first game is on.  I want the NBA back more than anybody but not if means sacrificing progress towards possible social justice reform.

EASTERN CONFERENCE PLAYOFF PREVIEW

With the NBA scheduled coming back at the end of July, it is time to preview each conference and tell you who are some contenders to go to the finals and some dark horses they can make some noise. The top 8 teams in the Eastern Conference are currently the Milwaukee Bucks, who have the best record in the league at 53-12, Toronto Raptors, Boston Celtics, Miami Heat, Indiana Pacers, Philadelphia 76ers, Brooklyn Nets, and Orlando Magic.  The Washington Wizards are currently 5 games back of the 8^th seed with 8 games; with the new playoff wrinkle that the 9^th seed must be within just 4 games to be able to have a chance to make the playoffs.  I am sticking with my previous prediction that the Wizards finish within 4 games of Magic; and that the Wizards beat the Magic twice in the play games for the 8^th seed to make the playoffs. With that being said, the Eastern Conference playoffs have 4 contenders and 1 dark horse. I will be ranking the 5 teams that can win it all and give reasons as to why they can and what can stop them from doing so.

                                                                                                                                                          

1.       Milwaukee Bucks

The Milwaukee Bucks have the best record in the league with the reigning Most Valuable Player (MVP), Giannis Antetokounmpo leading the charge. He is a leading candidate to win the Defensive Player of the Year (DYOP) this season. If Antetokounmpo wins both awards he will become just the third player ever to do so in the same season. The other two Hall of Famers Michael Jordan (1987-1988) and Hakeem Olajuwon (1993-1994). The Bucks have a formidable team with a great length which they use to their advantage on defense. They have the best defensive rating in the league and play with the fastest pace as well, which means they can play any style needed.  In addition to the Bucks being a great defensive team, the Bucks score the most points as well. I have three things that worry me about the Bucks which are expectations, Antetokounmpo’s 3 point shot, and the lack of a third scorer. Expectations are their biggest challenge due to the fact summer of 2021 Antetokounmpo can become a free agent. If they do not win this year one has to wonder if they can ever win a title. My second concern is Antetokounmpo’s 3-point shooting. He is shooting 5% better than he shot last year improving from 3 point range 25.6% percent last year to 30.6% this year. Unfortunately, he has taken more shots this year from 3 compared to last year, and his free throw percentage this season is just 63% which is much lower than his career average of 72%. Also, looking at Giannis’s shot chart he is only truly efficient from the middle of the floor and inside the paint. From the top of the 3pt line, he is shooting 34.7% which is just above the league average of 34.6%. The disparity comes when he is shotting right or left side of the 3 point line he is shooting just an average of 23% from those areas. When the Toronto Raptors put a wall up to limit his driving, he was unable to take advantage of mid-range and 3pt range opportunities last postseason. Hopefully, it is a different result this time.    The true key to the Bucks success this postseason is Eric Bledsoe as that constant third option. Bledsoe must remain aggressive for the Bucks to not only make the Finals but also to have a shot at winning a title this year.

2.       Toronto Raptors

The defending Champions were thought to take a major step back with Kawhi Leonard left this past summer. With the emergence of reigning most improved player Pascal Siakam. He made the All-Star for the first time this year. He is my leading candidate to repeat as the most improved player this year. Without question, Siakam is the team’s best player but their leader is Kyle Lowry. Last season he had overcome his playoff woes and help lead the Raptors to the championship. The three things that concern me about the Raptors are Kyle Lowry, Their lack of rebounding, and their aging frontcourt. Kyle Lowry a concern of mine because to me he was some who benefited greatly from the presence of Kawhi last year because with the emergence of Siakam in the playoffs it let Lowry shift to a third option where he thrived. With him being a second option his career 15 points on 42% shooting can hinder the Raptors chances. Lowry will have to elevate his game to 18 to 20 points this postseason and limit his turnovers to 2 a game if the Raptors are to advance. The other two things that concern me are the lack of rebounding that the Raptors have. They currently rank 12^th overall in rebounding but when you take a deeper dive, they are ranked 16^th when it comes to rebounding percentage. Rebounding percentage is how likely a team is to get a rebound in each possession. Being ranked 16^th is middle of the pack but when you look at the playoff teams only 3 of them have a lower rebounding percentage; those teams are The Indiana Pacers, San Antonio Spurs, and Houston Rockets. This plays to the adage of “no rebounds no rings”. In addition to their lack of rebounding they have an older front court compared to their opponents. Marc Gasol and Serge Ibaka are both over 30 and they must compete against more versatile big men on the defensive end. It will be a tough task when they must go up against potentially Jarret Allen, Joel Embiid, and either Giannis Antetokounmpo or Bam Adebayo. Those players are just in the Eastern Conference. That’s a lot to ask for from players who do not move as quickly as they used to.

3.    Boston Celtics

The Boston Celtics are doing what many thought they would do last year when Kyrie Irving was healthy after the team made it to the Eastern Conference Finals in 2018 while he was out injured. This summer they signed Kemba Walker to replace Irving who signed with the Brooklyn Nets. You can see the young nucleus of the Celtics' are having fun after the tumultuous season last year which ended short of expectations in the second round. They have the third-best record in the Eastern Conference lead by Kemba Walker and Jayson Tatum. The three things that concern me about the Celtics are Kemba’s playoff experience, their lack of assist, and 1-3 against 76ers. My main concern for the Celtics is the lack of playoff experience that Kemba Walker has. Walker has made the playoffs only twice with the last being in the 2015-2016 season. I think he will do well but my biggest fear being he will try to do too much to prove himself in the playoffs. Another concern of mine is that the Celtics are ranked 25^th in assist which means they play mostly isolation basketball. If they want to succeed in the playoffs, the Celtics will have to pass the ball a little bit more than they currently do. My final concern is a matchup issue the likely first-round matchup is against the Philadelphia 76ers whom they are 1-3 against this season. The matchup is not the greatest especially when the Celtics relying heavily on isolation allows Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons to lock in defensively. This is shown with the Celtics be held to under 100 points in 2 of the 4 games against the 76ers, both of which resulted in Celtics losses.  

4.     
     Philadelphia 76ers

The Philadelphia 76ers have the most talented duo in the NBA. Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons are talented enough to get the 76ers to the Eastern Conference finals at a minimum. Embiid is a walking double double and Ben Simmons is Magic Johnson, like in the way he can run the show and see the floor. The three things that concern me about the 76ers are summed up by two Ben Simmons. I main concern is the fact that Simmons refuses to shoot which affects all other aspects of the game and hinders the 76ers chances of winning a championship. Since Simmons does not shoot it limits drive and kick opportunities for the 76ers wing players who do not have many knockdown shooters. Also, with him not shooting and just driving to the basket it clogs the lane and at crucial times you have Embiid on the wing when he should be inside. Finally, his inability to shoot makes it easier to come up with a defensively game plan against him; Simmons is also bad free throw shooter at 62%. Until Simmons tries to shoot which would keep the defense honest the 76ers will struggle to win it all.

5.       Miami Heat

The Dark Horse that can make noise in the playoffs are the Miami Heat. They are led by Jimmy Butler he is the epitome of hard work beating talent when talent does not work hard. Butler signed with the Heat this offseason and leads a team of players who remind me of the 2004 Detroit Pistons. On paper not the most talented but they work hard and know the game basketball. The Miami Heat have received a huge boost from the play of Duncan Robinson, Kendrick Nunn, and Bam Adebayo each player has exceeded expectations. Also, they added Andre Iguodala via trade earlier this season and he brings championship pedigree. In addition, the Heat are 2-0 against the Bucks who the best record in the NBA. The only concern I have is the lack of experience the young core of Duncan, Nunn, and Adebayo have when it comes to playing in big games in the NBA. The playoffs are a different level, I wonder can the pressure that awaits will it will cause them to flourish or does it extinguish the Heats flames. I know mentally they will be ready due to strong leadership from both the veteran players and the organization.

I predict the Celtics beat the Heat in the Eastern Conference in 7 games. This will be a hard-fought series and we will see the emergence of  Jayson Tatum going from a rising young star to his arrival becoming established. he is just different, and he will prove why in the playoffs.   He will average 25 points 4 assists and 7 rebounds.

* All statistics are from www.NBA.com