Saturday, June 13, 2020

EASTERN CONFERENCE PLAYOFF PREVIEW


With the NBA scheduled coming back at the end of July, it is time to preview each conference and tell you who are some contenders to go to the finals and some dark horses they can make some noise. The top 8 teams in the Eastern Conference are currently the Milwaukee Bucks, who have the best record in the league at 53-12, Toronto Raptors, Boston Celtics, Miami Heat, Indiana Pacers, Philadelphia 76ers, Brooklyn Nets, and Orlando Magic.  The Washington Wizards are currently 5 games back of the 8th seed with 8 games; with the new playoff wrinkle that the 9th seed must be within just 4 games to be able to have a chance to make the playoffs.  I am sticking with my previous prediction that the Wizards finish within 4 games of Magic; and that the Wizards beat the Magic twice in the play games for the 8th seed to make the playoffs. With that being said, the Eastern Conference playoffs have 4 contenders and 1 dark horse. I will be ranking the 5 teams that can win it all and give reasons as to why they can and what can stop them from doing so.
                                                                                                                                                          
1.       Milwaukee Bucks
The Milwaukee Bucks have the best record in the league with the reigning Most Valuable Player (MVP), Giannis Antetokounmpo leading the charge. He is a leading candidate to win the Defensive Player of the Year (DYOP) this season. If Antetokounmpo wins both awards he will become just the third player ever to do so in the same season. The other two Hall of Famers Michael Jordan (1987-1988) and Hakeem Olajuwon (1993-1994). The Bucks have a formidable team with a great length which they use to their advantage on defense. They have the best defensive rating in the league and play with the fastest pace as well, which means they can play any style needed.  In addition to the Bucks being a great defensive team, the Bucks score the most points as well. I have three things that worry me about the Bucks which are expectations, Antetokounmpo’s 3 point shot, and the lack of a third scorer. Expectations are their biggest challenge due to the fact summer of 2021 Antetokounmpo can become a free agent. If they do not win this year one has to wonder if they can ever win a title. My second concern is Antetokounmpo’s 3-point shooting. He is shooting 5% better than he shot last year improving from 3 point range 25.6% percent last year to 30.6% this year. Unfortunately, he has taken more shots this year from 3 compared to last year, and his free throw percentage this season is just 63% which is much lower than his career average of 72%. Also, looking at Giannis’s shot chart he is only truly efficient from the middle of the floor and inside the paint. From the top of the 3pt line, he is shooting 34.7% which is just above the league average of 34.6%. The disparity comes when he is shotting right or left side of the 3 point line he is shooting just an average of 23% from those areas. When the Toronto Raptors put a wall up to limit his driving, he was unable to take advantage of mid-range and 3pt range opportunities last postseason. Hopefully, it is a different result this time.    The true key to the Bucks success this postseason is Eric Bledsoe as that constant third option. Bledsoe must remain aggressive for the Bucks to not only make the Finals but also to have a shot at winning a title this year.

2.       Toronto Raptors
The defending Champions were thought to take a major step back with Kawhi Leonard left this past summer. With the emergence of reigning most improved player Pascal Siakam. He made the All-Star for the first time this year. He is my leading candidate to repeat as the most improved player this year. Without question, Siakam is the team’s best player but their leader is Kyle Lowry. Last season he had overcome his playoff woes and help lead the Raptors to the championship. The three things that concern me about the Raptors are Kyle Lowry, Their lack of rebounding, and their aging frontcourt. Kyle Lowry a concern of mine because to me he was some who benefited greatly from the presence of Kawhi last year because with the emergence of Siakam in the playoffs it let Lowry shift to a third option where he thrived. With him being a second option his career 15 points on 42% shooting can hinder the Raptors chances. Lowry will have to elevate his game to 18 to 20 points this postseason and limit his turnovers to 2 a game if the Raptors are to advance. The other two things that concern me are the lack of rebounding that the Raptors have. They currently rank 12th overall in rebounding but when you take a deeper dive, they are ranked 16th when it comes to rebounding percentage. Rebounding percentage is how likely a team is to get a rebound in each possession. Being ranked 16th is middle of the pack but when you look at the playoff teams only 3 of them have a lower rebounding percentage; those teams are The Indiana Pacers, San Antonio Spurs, and Houston Rockets. This plays to the adage of “no rebounds no rings”. In addition to their lack of rebounding they have an older front court compared to their opponents. Marc Gasol and Serge Ibaka are both over 30 and they must compete against more versatile big men on the defensive end. It will be a tough task when they must go up against potentially Jarret Allen, Joel Embiid, and either Giannis Antetokounmpo or Bam Adebayo. Those players are just in the Eastern Conference. That’s a lot to ask for from players who do not move as quickly as they used to.

3.    Boston Celtics
The Boston Celtics are doing what many thought they would do last year when Kyrie Irving was healthy after the team made it to the Eastern Conference Finals in 2018 while he was out injured. This summer they signed Kemba Walker to replace Irving who signed with the Brooklyn Nets. You can see the young nucleus of the Celtics' are having fun after the tumultuous season last year which ended short of expectations in the second round. They have the third-best record in the Eastern Conference lead by Kemba Walker and Jayson Tatum. The three things that concern me about the Celtics are Kemba’s playoff experience, their lack of assist, and 1-3 against 76ers. My main concern for the Celtics is the lack of playoff experience that Kemba Walker has. Walker has made the playoffs only twice with the last being in the 2015-2016 season. I think he will do well but my biggest fear being he will try to do too much to prove himself in the playoffs. Another concern of mine is that the Celtics are ranked 25th in assist which means they play mostly isolation basketball. If they want to succeed in the playoffs, the Celtics will have to pass the ball a little bit more than they currently do. My final concern is a matchup issue the likely first-round matchup is against the Philadelphia 76ers whom they are 1-3 against this season. The matchup is not the greatest especially when the Celtics relying heavily on isolation allows Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons to lock in defensively. This is shown with the Celtics be held to under 100 points in 2 of the 4 games against the 76ers, both of which resulted in Celtics losses.  
4.     
     Philadelphia 76ers
The Philadelphia 76ers have the most talented duo in the NBA. Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons are talented enough to get the 76ers to the Eastern Conference finals at a minimum. Embiid is a walking double double and Ben Simmons is Magic Johnson, like in the way he can run the show and see the floor. The three things that concern me about the 76ers are summed up by two Ben Simmons. I main concern is the fact that Simmons refuses to shoot which affects all other aspects of the game and hinders the 76ers chances of winning a championship. Since Simmons does not shoot it limits drive and kick opportunities for the 76ers wing players who do not have many knockdown shooters. Also, with him not shooting and just driving to the basket it clogs the lane and at crucial times you have Embiid on the wing when he should be inside. Finally, his inability to shoot makes it easier to come up with a defensively game plan against him; Simmons is also bad free throw shooter at 62%. Until Simmons tries to shoot which would keep the defense honest the 76ers will struggle to win it all.

5.       Miami Heat
The Dark Horse that can make noise in the playoffs are the Miami Heat. They are led by Jimmy Butler he is the epitome of hard work beating talent when talent does not work hard. Butler signed with the Heat this offseason and leads a team of players who remind me of the 2004 Detroit Pistons. On paper not the most talented but they work hard and know the game basketball. The Miami Heat have received a huge boost from the play of Duncan Robinson, Kendrick Nunn, and Bam Adebayo each player has exceeded expectations. Also, they added Andre Iguodala via trade earlier this season and he brings championship pedigree. In addition, the Heat are 2-0 against the Bucks who the best record in the NBA. The only concern I have is the lack of experience the young core of Duncan, Nunn, and Adebayo have when it comes to playing in big games in the NBA. The playoffs are a different level, I wonder can the pressure that awaits will it will cause them to flourish or does it extinguish the Heats flames. I know mentally they will be ready due to strong leadership from both the veteran players and the organization.

I predict the Celtics beat the Heat in the Eastern Conference in 7 games. This will be a hard-fought series and we will see the emergence of  Jayson Tatum going from a rising young star to his arrival becoming established. he is just different, and he will prove why in the playoffs.   He will average 25 points 4 assists and 7 rebounds.

* All statistics are from www.NBA.com
 

No comments:

Post a Comment